luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Texans at Bears, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Texans 23–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:52 left): Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:13 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 1.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Chicago Bears 23

September 25, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +28 Bears lucky · −28 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Bears win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 26 CHI 9
  2. 2 HOU 16 CHI 7
  3. 3 HOU 20 CHI 17
  4. 4 HOU 17 CHI 19
  5. 5 HOU 19 CHI 24
  6. 6 HOU 14 CHI 22
  7. 7 HOU 7 CHI 20
  8. 8 HOU 22 CHI 37
  9. 9 HOU 10 CHI 29
  10. 10 HOU 17 CHI 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 28% of them, Bears 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.5%
Texans by 9–168.1%
Texans by 1–815.5%
Level after regulation3.2%
Bears by 1–823.8%
Bears by 9–1621.8%
Bears by 17+24.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Texans: the final margin was Bears by 3, without the luck Bears by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 68% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 3 for 25 yards, Bears 6 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:45 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 13:01 Defensive Holding on the Bears, 5 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 1:01 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 7 yards +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 13:17 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 5 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 9:04 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 7:32 Illegal Substitution on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 6:46 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.3 pts
Q4 4:32 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +8% CHI +1.1 pts
Q4 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +15% CHI +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:00 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% HOU CHI: Field goal
2 Q4 15:00 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% HOU CHI: Punt
3 Q4 6:39 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q4 5:18 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q4 3:55 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 1:52 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +15% CHI CHI: Field goal
7 Q4 1:13 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +58% CHI –
8 Q4 0:03 C. Santos made 30-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +14% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 27% · Bears 73%

Final margin
Bears by 3
Luck in points
0.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 28% · Bears 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Texans · Bears

More from Week 3 2022