luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Lions at Vikings, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 28–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: drops alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:14 left): A. Seibert missed 54-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Vikings. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:17 left): the Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked.

Final

Detroit Lions 24
Minnesota Vikings 28

September 25, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −6.5

Luck index +23 Vikings about even · −23 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 DET 29 MIN 15
  2. 2 DET 16 MIN 12
  3. 3 DET 17 MIN 19
  4. 4 DET 28 MIN 32
  5. 5 DET 19 MIN 27
  6. 6 DET 13 MIN 23
  7. 7 DET 13 MIN 26
  8. 8 DET 17 MIN 34
  9. 9 DET 9 MIN 30
  10. 10 DET 7 MIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 23% of them, Vikings 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+2.9%
Lions by 9–167.0%
Lions by 1–812.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Vikings by 1–824.7%
Vikings by 9–1620.0%
Vikings by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 4, without the luck Vikings by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
  • G. Joseph, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
  • A. Seibert, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Joseph, 56 yds missed · 64% expected
  • A. Seibert, 54 yds missed · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 7 for 59 yards, Vikings 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:11 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 8:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Mike Hughes), 3 yards +4% MIN +2.8 pts
Q2 0:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 21 yards +4% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 2:14 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Jamaal Williams), 15 yards +5% MIN +1.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 12:15 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Eric Kendricks), 5 yards +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q4 9:43 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 9:38 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 6:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards +4% DET +0.5 pts
Q4 2:28 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Camryn Bynum), 5 yards +5% DET +0.6 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:12 The Lions converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +17% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:04 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +13% MIN DET: Punt
3 Q3 10:41 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +14% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q4 3:35 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% MIN DET: Missed field goal
5 Q4 1:14 The game turned hereA. Seibert missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 10 of 19 from 45+ before +24% MIN DET: Turnover
6 Q4 1:10 K. Osborn dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +24% DET MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:23 The Lions got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% DET DET: Turnover
8 Q4 0:17 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +32% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 45% · Vikings 55%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
3.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 23% · Vikings 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Lions · Vikings

More from Week 3 2022