luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Raiders at Titans, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Raiders 24–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:33 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 18 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 22
Tennessee Titans 24

September 25, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1.5

Luck index +46 Titans lucky · −46 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Titans win 5.

  1. 1 LV 30 TEN 10
  2. 2 LV 41 TEN 28
  3. 3 LV 23 TEN 14
  4. 4 LV 20 TEN 16
  5. 5 LV 16 TEN 14
  6. 6 LV 17 TEN 19
  7. 7 LV 17 TEN 22
  8. 8 LV 26 TEN 35
  9. 9 LV 24 TEN 37
  10. 10 LV 7 TEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 46% of them, Titans 54%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+8.7%
Raiders by 9–1613.4%
Raiders by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation7.1%
Titans by 1–823.7%
Titans by 9–1614.6%
Titans by 17+10.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Titans by 2, without the luck Titans by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 6 for 44 yards, Titans 7 for 85 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:11 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +4% LV +1.2 pts
Q1 6:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 36 yards +6% LV +3.0 pts
Q2 10:14 False Start on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 9:44 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 7:22 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 6:25 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q3 6:08 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% LV +1.4 pts
Q3 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% TEN +3.7 pts
Q3 3:45 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 11:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 14 yards +4% LV +1.6 pts
Q4 6:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders, 15 yards +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 2:13 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 1:37 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yards +8% LV +1.9 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:10 The Raiders converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q3 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 9:33 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% TEN LV: Field goal
4 Q4 2:13 The Raiders converted 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:37 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 2308 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:22 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedK. Cole dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +17% TEN LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:18 The Raiders converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:14 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 29% · Titans 71%

Final margin
Titans by 2
Luck in points
3.0 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 46% · Titans 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Raiders · Titans

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