luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · September 29, 2022–October 3

Week 4 2022: who deserved to win

1 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 41–31 in a game they win 44% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 24–17 @ Colts 37% 79% Deserved
Jets 24–20 @ Steelers 41% 56% Coin flip
Seahawks 48–45 @ Lions 41% 87% Deserved
Falcons 23–20 vs Browns 47% 53% Coin flip
Cardinals 26–16 @ Panthers 47% 96% Deserved
Chiefs 41–31 @ Buccaneers 47% 44% Coin flip

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chiefs W 41–31 @ Buccaneers 44% +56
2 Falcons W 23–20 vs Browns 53% +47
3 Jets W 24–20 @ Steelers 56% +44
4 Bills W 23–20 @ Ravens 61% +39
5 Packers W 27–24 vs Patriots 62% +38
6 Bengals W 27–15 vs Dolphins 68% +32
7 Titans W 24–17 @ Colts 79% +21
8 49ers W 24–9 vs Rams 83% +17
9 Cowboys W 25–10 vs Commanders 84% +16
10 Vikings W 28–25 @ Saints 87% +13
11 Seahawks W 48–45 @ Lions 87% +13
12 Chargers W 34–24 @ Texans 88% +12
13 Giants W 20–12 vs Bears 88% +12
14 Raiders W 32–23 vs Broncos 90% +10
15 Cardinals W 26–16 @ Panthers 96% +4
16 Eagles W 29–21 vs Jaguars 97% +3
17 Jaguars L 21–29 @ Eagles 3% −3
18 Panthers L 16–26 vs Cardinals 4% −4
19 Broncos L 23–32 @ Raiders 10% −10
20 Bears L 12–20 @ Giants 12% −12
21 Texans L 24–34 vs Chargers 12% −12
22 Lions L 45–48 vs Seahawks 13% −13
23 Saints L 25–28 vs Vikings 13% −13
24 Commanders L 10–25 @ Cowboys 16% −16
25 Rams L 9–24 @ 49ers 17% −17
26 Colts L 17–24 vs Titans 21% −21
27 Dolphins L 15–27 @ Bengals 32% −32
28 Patriots L 24–27 @ Packers 38% −38
29 Ravens L 20–23 vs Bills 39% −39
30 Steelers L 20–24 vs Jets 44% −44
31 Browns L 20–23 @ Falcons 47% −47
32 Buccaneers L 31–41 vs Chiefs 56% −56