luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Commanders at Cowboys, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Commanders 25–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 6:16 left): Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Washington Commanders 10
Dallas Cowboys 25

October 2, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +16 Cowboys about even · −16 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 23 DAL 10
  2. 2 WAS 37 DAL 34
  3. 3 WAS 10 DAL 13
  4. 4 WAS 26 DAL 32
  5. 5 WAS 16 DAL 25
  6. 6 WAS 16 DAL 29
  7. 7 WAS 14 DAL 30
  8. 8 WAS 10 DAL 30
  9. 9 WAS 6 DAL 30
  10. 10 WAS 6 DAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 16% of them, Cowboys 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+1.8%
Commanders by 9–163.5%
Commanders by 1–89.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cowboys by 1–820.1%
Cowboys by 9–1622.7%
Cowboys by 17+40.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.0 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 15, without the luck Cowboys by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • B. Maher, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 11 for 136 yards, Cowboys 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:24 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 4:18 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DAL +2.2 pts
Q2 12:33 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Carson Wentz), 12 yards +3% DAL +1.3 pts
Q2 6:16 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the play +20% DAL +5.4 pts
Q2 1:23 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 10:44 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (William Jackson III), 5 yards, wiping out the play +18% DAL +4.9 pts
Q3 8:53 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 8:48 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 6:58 False Start on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 2:15 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Carson Wentz), 14 yards +3% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 2:10 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q3 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (William Jackson III), 38 yards +9% DAL +2.7 pts
Q4 9:36 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 7:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (William Jackson III), 27 yards +1% DAL +1.6 pts
Q4 1:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.2 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q2 15:00 B. Maher made 45-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 9 of 17 from 45+ before +8% DAL DAL: Punt
3 Q2 7:11 The Commanders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:16 The game turned hereIllegal Contact on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 591 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +20% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 14:09 The Commanders converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% WAS WAS: Punt
6 Q3 10:44 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (William Jackson III), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2619 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +18% DAL DAL: Punt
7 Q3 9:59 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedD. Schultz dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +10% WAS DAL: Punt
8 Q3 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (William Jackson III), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2619 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 4.9 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 57% · Cowboys 43%

Final margin
Cowboys by 15
Luck in points
11.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 16% · Cowboys 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Commanders · Cowboys

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