Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022
Titans at Colts, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Colts 24–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: drops alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Colts.
An off day for the Colts: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Colts were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:49 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 31 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 24 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Titans about even · −21 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 8, Colts win 2.
- 1 TEN 43 IND 13
- 2 TEN 33 IND 10
- 3 TEN 28 IND 10
- 4 TEN 24 IND 10
- 5 TEN 21 IND 10
- 6 TEN 31 IND 23
- 7 TEN 18 IND 13
- 8 TEN 16 IND 14
- 9 TEN 27 IND 31
- 10 TEN 21 IND 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Colts
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.12 | worse by 0.07 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.10 | worse by 0.08 |
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.10 | better by 0.08 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.11 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 79% of them, Colts 21%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 30.0% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 26.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Colts by 17+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 80% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 51 yds missed · 66% expected
Penalties: Titans 6 for 40 yards, Colts 7 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:10 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Mario Edwards), 5 yards | +6% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q1 10:56 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:28 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.1 pts |
| Q2 13:14 | Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Ifeadi Odenigbo), 15 yards | +3% TEN +2.0 pts |
| Q2 12:16 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:34 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards | +1% TEN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:11 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +1% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:19 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +2% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 5 yards | 0% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:34 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:32 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:40 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards | 0% TEN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:57 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +6% IND +0.9 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:04 | The Colts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +7% IND | IND: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:56 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +18% TEN | IND: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 2:38 | The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% IND | IND: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:22 | The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% IND | IND: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 8:49 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +31% TEN | IND: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 4:57 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% IND | IND: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:45 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +11% TEN | IND: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:03 | C. McLaughlin missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 14 of 22 from 45+ before | +9% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 82% · Colts 18%
- Final margin
- Titans by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 7.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 79% · Colts 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · 
Titans · 
Colts
More from Week 4 2022
- Dolphins at Bengals CIN 27–15 · replay 68% for the winner
- Vikings vs Saints MIN 28–25 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Ravens BUF 23–20 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bears at Giants NYG 20–12 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Falcons ATL 23–20 · replay 53% for the winner
- Jaguars at Eagles PHI 29–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Texans LAC 34–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers NYJ 24–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions SEA 48–45 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 25–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers ARI 26–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 32–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- Patriots at Packers GB 27–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Chiefs at Buccaneers KC 41–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–9 · replay 83% for the winner