luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Chargers at Texans, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Texans 34–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:40 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 17 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 34
Houston Texans 24

October 2, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −5.5

Luck index +12 Chargers about even · −12 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Texans win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 33 HOU 0
  2. 2 LAC 43 HOU 17
  3. 3 LAC 38 HOU 17
  4. 4 LAC 33 HOU 16
  5. 5 LAC 24 HOU 10
  6. 6 LAC 38 HOU 27
  7. 7 LAC 35 HOU 27
  8. 8 LAC 26 HOU 21
  9. 9 LAC 22 HOU 19
  10. 10 LAC 9 HOU 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 88% of them, Texans 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+49.2%
Chargers by 9–1621.6%
Chargers by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation2.0%
Texans by 1–87.4%
Texans by 9–162.5%
Texans by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 10, without the luck Chargers by 7.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds missed · 77% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 61 yards, Texans 9 for 67 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 10:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 16 yards +1% HOU +1.0 pts
Q1 9:15 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LAC +2.7 pts
Q1 6:39 Fair Catch Interference on the Chargers, 15 yards +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q1 4:35 Face Mask on the Chargers (Kenneth Murray), 15 yards +3% HOU +1.6 pts
Q1 3:27 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 2:30 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q2 0:15 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 11:28 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 11:18 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 14:20 Defensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 13:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 7 yards 0% LAC +0.6 pts
Q4 2:44 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards +3% LAC +0.4 pts
Q4 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards 0% LAC +1.4 pts
Q4 0:18 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.3 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% LAC HOU: Punt
2 Q1 12:04 The Chargers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:15 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q4 10:02 The Chargers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% HOU LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:22 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q4 8:39 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +6% LAC HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 5:23 The Chargers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +14% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:16 The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pharaoh Brown (HOU TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 83% · Texans 17%

Final margin
Chargers by 10
Luck in points
2.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 88% · Texans 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Chargers · Texans

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