Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022
Patriots at Packers, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Patriots 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Before kickoff the Packers were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): the Packers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 52 points of win probability to the Packers. The biggest single swing (Q2, 0:22 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 9.
Final (OT)
 New England Patriots | 24 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Packers lucky · −38 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Patriots win 4, Packers win 6.
- 1 NE 34 GB 13
- 2 NE 33 GB 20
- 3 NE 20 GB 13
- 4 NE 16 GB 13
- 5 NE 17 GB 19
- 6 NE 20 GB 26
- 7 NE 27 GB 36
- 8 NE 27 GB 41
- 9 NE 27 GB 47
- 10 NE 13 GB 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Patriots win 38% of them, Packers 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Patriots by 17+ | 7.5% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 10.8% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Packers by 17+ | 19.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- M. Crosby, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Crosby, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Patriots 7 for 75 yards, Packers 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:16 | Face Mask on the Patriots (Mack Wilson), 15 yards | +6% GB +2.1 pts |
| Q1 2:25 | False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:14 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Patriots, 15 yards | +1% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:59 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Patriots, 15 yards | +5% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +7% NE +1.5 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Raekwon McMillan), 10 yards | +4% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 15 yards | +5% NE +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:27 | Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 11 yards | +8% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:02 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% NE +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:14 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards | +23% NE +0.9 pts |
Patriots penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:22 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams | +54% NE | GB: End of half |
| 2 | Q3 11:16 | The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +11% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 6:17 | The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +16% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 2:08 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 18 catchable balls before this | +13% NE | GB: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 0:14 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +23% NE | NE: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:04 | The game turned hereThe Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +52% GB | GB: Punt |
| 7 | QOT 8:33 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +11% NE | GB: Punt |
| 8 | QOT 7:00 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +17% GB | NE: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 4.3 pts
- Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Jakobi Meyers (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Lawrence Guy (NE DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Patriots 76% · Packers 24%
- Final margin
- Packers by 3
- Luck in points
- 11.9 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Patriots by 8.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Patriots 38% · Packers 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · 
Patriots · 
Packers
More from Week 4 2022
- Dolphins at Bengals CIN 27–15 · replay 68% for the winner
- Vikings vs Saints MIN 28–25 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Ravens BUF 23–20 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bears at Giants NYG 20–12 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Falcons ATL 23–20 · replay 53% for the winner
- Jaguars at Eagles PHI 29–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Texans LAC 34–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers NYJ 24–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions SEA 48–45 · replay 87% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 24–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 25–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers ARI 26–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 32–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at Buccaneers KC 41–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–9 · replay 83% for the winner