Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022
Vikings vs Saints, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Saints 28–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Saints.
An off day for the Saints: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 4:27 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yards, worth 26 points of win probability to the Vikings. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:02 left): W. Lutz missed 61-yard field goal.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 28 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Vikings about even · −13 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Saints win 1.
- 1 MIN 44 NO 13
- 2 MIN 38 NO 14
- 3 MIN 30 NO 10
- 4 MIN 30 NO 13
- 5 MIN 20 NO 7
- 6 MIN 14 NO 3
- 7 MIN 24 NO 16
- 8 MIN 19 NO 14
- 9 MIN 23 NO 21
- 10 MIN 13 NO 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Saints
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.11 | worse by 0.07 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.10 | worse by 0.16 |
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.04 | better by 0.23 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 | better by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 87% of them, Saints 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 45.8% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 18.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Saints by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Joseph, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 91% expected
- G. Joseph, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Joseph, 46 yds made · 76% expected
- W. Lutz, 60 yds made · 52% expected
- G. Joseph, 47 yds made · 75% expected
- W. Lutz, 61 yds missed · 52% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Vikings 5 for 35 yards, Saints 10 for 102 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:17 | Defensive Offside on the Saints, 6 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:57 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards | +2% MIN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 8:24 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% NO +4.2 pts |
| Q1 7:07 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:55 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:08 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:39 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yards | +4% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:46 | Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 10 yards | +3% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:41 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:39 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Bradley Roby), 5 yards | +2% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:36 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Tyrann Mathieu), 5 yards | +10% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:27 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yards | +26% MIN +3.6 pts |
| Q4 4:15 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (J.P. Holtz), 10 yards | +7% MIN +1.3 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:24 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2089 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 | +14% NO | NO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:19 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +10% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:03 | The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +11% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:00 | The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +11% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 6:20 | J. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 30 catchable balls before this | +11% NO | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:27 | The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3082 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +26% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:29 | G. Joseph made 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 11 of 17 from 45+ before | +19% MIN | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | W. Lutz missed 61-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 19 of 27 from 45+ before | +27% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.6 pts
- Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.5 pts
- Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
- Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Nick Vannett (NO TE), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 37% · Saints 63%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.8 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 6.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 87% · Saints 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · 
Vikings · 
Saints
More from Week 4 2022
- Dolphins at Bengals CIN 27–15 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Ravens BUF 23–20 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bears at Giants NYG 20–12 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Falcons ATL 23–20 · replay 53% for the winner
- Jaguars at Eagles PHI 29–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Texans LAC 34–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers NYJ 24–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions SEA 48–45 · replay 87% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 24–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 25–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers ARI 26–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 32–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- Patriots at Packers GB 27–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Chiefs at Buccaneers KC 41–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–9 · replay 83% for the winner