luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Bears at Giants, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Bears 20–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q1, 1:33 left): M. Badgley made 22-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Chicago Bears 12
New York Giants 20

October 2, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +12 Giants about even · −12 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Giants win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 16 NYG 10
  2. 2 CHI 24 NYG 26
  3. 3 CHI 19 NYG 24
  4. 4 CHI 23 NYG 31
  5. 5 CHI 16 NYG 28
  6. 6 CHI 20 NYG 34
  7. 7 CHI 10 NYG 28
  8. 8 CHI 17 NYG 38
  9. 9 CHI 13 NYG 37
  10. 10 CHI 3 NYG 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 12% of them, Giants 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.1%
Bears by 9–162.5%
Bears by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation1.5%
Giants by 1–817.6%
Giants by 9–1623.5%
Giants by 17+46.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Bears: the final margin was Giants by 8, without the luck Giants by 8.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Badgley, 22 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Badgley, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Gano, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Gano, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • G. Gano, 37 yds missed · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 5 for 65 yards, Giants 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 14 yards +5% CHI +1.7 pts
Q1 3:41 Roughing the Passer on the Giants, 11 yards +2% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 7:14 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% CHI +2.3 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:36 Illegal Contact on the Giants, 5 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 10:32 Encroachment on the Bears (Justin Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 10:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% CHI +1.3 pts
Q3 6:55 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Giants, 5 yards +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 10 yards +4% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 4:23 Illegal Contact on the Bears, 5 yards 0% NYG +0.3 pts
Q3 3:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 40 yards +6% NYG +2.6 pts
Q4 12:18 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Justin Layne), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.8 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:33 The game turned hereM. Badgley made 22-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +20% NYG CHI: Turnover
2 Q2 10:22 The Bears converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +13% CHI CHI: Turnover
3 Q2 9:38 The Bears fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG CHI: Punt
4 Q2 7:14 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% CHI CHI: Punt
5 Q2 6:45 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:49 M. Badgley made 40-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +8% CHI CHI: End of half
7 Q3 13:06 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q3 0:50 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedD. Pettis dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +9% NYG CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Peart (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • David Montgomery (CHI RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cairo Santos (CHI K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 11% · Giants 89%

Final margin
Giants by 8
Luck in points
0.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Bears 12% · Giants 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Bears · Giants

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