2022 season · final

New Orleans Saints, 2022: game by game

The Saints went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck cost them 2.6: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.

Every game

How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Falcons	W 27–26	63%	+37
Week 2	vs Buccaneers	L 10–20	34%	−34
Week 3	@ Panthers	L 14–22	22%	−22
Week 4	vs Vikings	L 25–28	13%	−13
Week 5	vs Seahawks	W 39–32	50%	+50
Week 6	vs Bengals	L 26–30	21%	−21
Week 7	@ Cardinals	L 34–42	90%	−90
Week 8	vs Raiders	W 24–0	97%	+4
Week 9	vs Ravens	L 13–27	59%	−59
Week 10	@ Steelers	L 10–20	17%	−17
Week 11	vs Rams	W 27–20	78%	+22
Week 12	@ 49ers	L 0–13	44%	−44
Week 13	@ Buccaneers	L 16–17	75%	−75
Week 15	vs Falcons	W 21–18	67%	+33
Week 16	@ Browns	W 17–10	53%	+47
Week 17	@ Eagles	W 20–10	89%	+11
Week 18	vs Panthers	L 7–10	90%	−90

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +37 @ ATL

Wk 2 −34 vs TB

Wk 3 −22 @ CAR

Wk 4 −13 vs MIN

Wk 5 +50 vs SEA

Wk 6 −21 vs CIN

Wk 7 −90 @ ARI

Wk 8 +4 vs LV

Wk 9 −59 vs BAL

Wk 10 −17 @ PIT

Wk 11 +22 vs LA

Wk 12 −44 @ SF

Wk 13 −75 @ TB

Wk 15 +33 vs ATL

Wk 16 +47 @ CLE

Wk 17 +11 @ PHI

Wk 18 −90 vs CAR

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	−0.03	+2.6
Rest	−0.05	−1.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.08	−7.0
Fumble bounces	−0.09	−3.1
Kicks	−0.51	−21.4
Drops	−0.53	+4.7
Injuries	−0.60	−21.7