luckadjusted

2021 season · final

New Orleans Saints, 2021: game by game

The Saints went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–3.

Every game

How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers W 38–3 77% +23
Week 2 @ Panthers L 7–26 21% −21
Week 3 @ Patriots W 28–13 83% +17
Week 4 vs Giants L 21–27 83% −83
Week 5 @ Washington W 33–22 34% +66
Week 7 @ Seahawks W 13–10 52% +48
Week 8 vs Buccaneers W 36–27 22% +78
Week 9 vs Falcons L 25–27 42% −42
Week 10 @ Titans L 21–23 63% −63
Week 11 @ Eagles L 29–40 43% −43
Week 12 vs Bills L 6–31 2% −2
Week 13 vs Cowboys L 17–27 25% −25
Week 14 @ Jets W 30–9 61% +39
Week 15 @ Buccaneers W 9–0 17% +83
Week 16 vs Dolphins L 3–20 30% −30
Week 17 vs Panthers W 18–10 81% +19
Week 18 @ Falcons W 30–20 77% +23

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.19+0.5
Rest+0.04+1.6
Fumble bounces−0.18−3.1
Judgment calls−0.19−4.5
Kicks−0.39−6.4
Injuries−1.24−49.0