luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Saints, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 36–27, but the Buccaneers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 44 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:36 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 28 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
New Orleans Saints 36

October 31, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Buccaneers −4

Luck index +78 Saints very lucky · −78 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Saints win 2.

  1. 1 TB 41 NO 8
  2. 2 TB 44 NO 20
  3. 3 TB 40 NO 21
  4. 4 TB 31 NO 16
  5. 5 TB 30 NO 17
  6. 6 TB 22 NO 13
  7. 7 TB 22 NO 17
  8. 8 TB 31 NO 28
  9. 9 TB 27 NO 30
  10. 10 TB 20 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 78% of them, Saints 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+32.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.0%
Buccaneers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation1.8%
Saints by 1–812.3%
Saints by 9–166.2%
Saints by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.5 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 9, without the luck Buccaneers by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Johnson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Johnson, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Johnson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 11 for 99 yards, Saints 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:06 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q1 9:24 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q2 12:44 Horse Collar Tackle on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 15 yards +4% NO +2.0 pts
Q2 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 10 yards +3% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 4:52 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 3:50 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 12 yards +2% NO +1.7 pts
Q2 3:45 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 7 yards, wiping out the play +14% NO +4.5 pts
Q3 10:56 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q3 2:27 False Start on the Buccaneers (Ronald Jones II), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 14:45 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +5% NO +1.2 pts
Q4 10:46 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +1.1 pts
Q4 10:30 Taunting on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 15 yards +6% NO +2.0 pts
Q4 2:46 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Ross Cockrell), 5 yards +6% NO +0.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:05 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:35 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:46 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:29 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q2 7:42 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% NO TB: Turnover
6 Q2 3:45 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1761 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +14% NO NO: Field goal
7 Q3 1:22 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:36 Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +28% NO NO: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G/T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Richard Sherman (TB CB), out · 1.6 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 80% · Saints 20%

Final margin
Saints by 9
Luck in points
16.5 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 78% · Saints 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Buccaneers · Saints

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