luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Browns, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 15–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Browns were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:58 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 12, worth 19 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 15
Cleveland Browns 10

October 31, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −5.5

Luck index +46 Steelers lucky · −46 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 27 CLE 6
  2. 2 PIT 20 CLE 7
  3. 3 PIT 23 CLE 14
  4. 4 PIT 19 CLE 14
  5. 5 PIT 19 CLE 17
  6. 6 PIT 17 CLE 19
  7. 7 PIT 19 CLE 24
  8. 8 PIT 10 CLE 19
  9. 9 PIT 28 CLE 41
  10. 10 PIT 20 CLE 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 54% of them, Browns 46%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+10.4%
Steelers by 9–1616.3%
Steelers by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation6.3%
Browns by 1–820.8%
Browns by 9–1614.8%
Browns by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 5, without the luck Steelers by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 8 for 65 yards, Browns 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:57 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% CLE +1.3 pts
Q1 3:55 False Start on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 11:41 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (James Washington), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 14:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards +4% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 13:55 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Isaiah Buggs), 5 yards +2% CLE +1.0 pts
Q3 3:39 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q3 2:10 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +1.0 pts
Q4 13:50 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Malik Jackson), 5 yards 0% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 13:22 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 4:29 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 2:57 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards +15% CLE +1.1 pts
Q4 2:05 False Start on the Browns (Rashard Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +9% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 0:06 False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.3 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q2 6:21 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 1:45 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% CLE PIT: End of half
4 Q4 14:32 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:08 The Steelers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +16% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:57 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 985 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +15% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:05 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Browns (Rashard Higgins), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1054 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +10% PIT CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:58 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +19% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tyson Alualu (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 81% · Browns 19%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
1.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 54% · Browns 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Steelers · Browns

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