luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2021: game by game

The Steelers went 9–7–1 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.8 wins. Luck added 3.7: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–2–1.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.

Every game

How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Bills W 23–16 56% +44
Week 2 vs Raiders L 17–26 20% −20
Week 3 vs Bengals L 10–24 15% −15
Week 4 @ Packers L 17–27 14% −14
Week 5 vs Broncos W 27–19 52% +48
Week 6 vs Seahawks W 23–20 73% +27
Week 8 @ Browns W 15–10 54% +46
Week 9 vs Bears W 29–27 34% +66
Week 10 vs Lions T 16–16 39% +11
Week 11 @ Chargers L 37–41 2% −2
Week 12 @ Bengals L 10–41 5% −5
Week 13 vs Ravens W 20–19 70% +30
Week 14 @ Vikings L 28–36 15% −15
Week 15 vs Titans W 19–13 67% +33
Week 16 @ Chiefs L 10–36 12% −12
Week 17 vs Browns W 26–14 38% +62
Week 18 @ Ravens W 16–13 17% +83
Wild Card @ Chiefs L 21–42 1% −1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+1.30+7.1
Judgment calls+1.14+46.2
Injuries+0.27+9.1
3rd & 4th downs+0.13+0.7
Rest−0.03−1.4
Fumble bounces−0.39−3.1