luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Steelers, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:59 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 10

September 26, 2021 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −2.5

Luck index +15 Bengals about even · −15 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 37 PIT 10
  2. 2 CIN 37 PIT 16
  3. 3 CIN 34 PIT 16
  4. 4 CIN 22 PIT 7
  5. 5 CIN 22 PIT 9
  6. 6 CIN 30 PIT 20
  7. 7 CIN 31 PIT 24
  8. 8 CIN 17 PIT 12
  9. 9 CIN 30 PIT 29
  10. 10 CIN 26 PIT 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 85% of them, Steelers 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+36.8%
Bengals by 9–1623.3%
Bengals by 1–824.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Steelers by 1–88.8%
Steelers by 9–164.3%
Steelers by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 14, without the luck Bengals by 13.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds missed · 84% expected
  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 10 for 89 yards, Steelers 10 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:20 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +1.1 pts
Q1 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +1.6 pts
Q1 10:48 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CIN +2.1 pts
Q1 9:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 6 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +1.7 pts
Q1 6:51 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q1 4:07 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 13 yards +6% PIT +2.7 pts
Q1 0:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 5:56 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:57 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Melvin Ingram), 15 yards +3% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 0:15 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% PIT +2.0 pts
Q3 12:56 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 10:06 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PIT +2.0 pts
Q3 5:12 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yards +2% PIT +1.8 pts
Q3 2:26 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Justin Layne), 4 yards 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q3 1:28 False Start on the Steelers, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 11:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 11 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 10:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 10 yards +1% CIN +1.5 pts
Q4 9:34 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.3 pts
Q4 7:59 False Start on the Bengals (Tyler Boyd), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.8 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:51 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% CIN PIT: Punt
2 Q1 5:20 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:03 The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1737 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q2 1:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:15 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% PIT PIT: Turnover
7 Q3 10:06 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% PIT PIT: Turnover
8 Q3 7:59 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% CIN PIT: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyson Alualu (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Fred Johnson (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 99% · Steelers 1%

Final margin
Bengals by 14
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 85% · Steelers 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Bengals · Steelers

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