luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Lions, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Lions 19–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Tucker made 66-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 19
Detroit Lions 17

September 26, 2021 · Ford Field · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +49 Ravens lucky · −49 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Lions win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 41 DET 17
  2. 2 BAL 39 DET 24
  3. 3 BAL 33 DET 23
  4. 4 BAL 27 DET 22
  5. 5 BAL 15 DET 13
  6. 6 BAL 34 DET 36
  7. 7 BAL 23 DET 29
  8. 8 BAL 13 DET 23
  9. 9 BAL 7 DET 23
  10. 10 BAL 3 DET 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 51% of them, Lions 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+11.7%
Ravens by 9–1614.8%
Ravens by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation5.3%
Lions by 1–821.2%
Lions by 9–1614.3%
Lions by 17+11.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Lions: the final margin was Ravens by 2, without the luck Ravens by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 49 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Santoso, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 66 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 69 yards, Lions 7 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:14 False Start on the Lions (Darren Fells), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% BAL +1.5 pts
Q1 2:46 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q1 0:55 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 11 yards +2% DET +1.7 pts
Q2 14:12 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 4 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +1.5 pts
Q2 12:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions, 7 yards +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 12:36 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q2 8:52 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q2 7:23 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% DET +2.0 pts
Q2 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 1:57 False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q3 14:19 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 28 yards +6% DET +2.5 pts
Q4 8:16 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Justin Ellis), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:57 J. Tucker missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 21 of 25 from 45+ before +11% DET BAL: Punt
2 Q2 12:59 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Lions, 7 yardsJudgment calls +8% BAL DET: Punt
3 Q2 8:03 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% BAL DET: Punt
4 Q2 3:21 The Ravens converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:33 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +15% DET BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 0:35 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% DET BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:26 The Ravens converted 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +24% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 The game turned hereJ. Tucker made 66-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 22 of 27 from 45+ before +39% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jamie Collins (DET LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrell Crosby (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Strong (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Williams (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Boykin (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 86% · Lions 14%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
5.4 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 51% · Lions 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Ravens · Lions

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