2021 season · final

Baltimore Ravens, 2021: game by game

The Ravens went 8–9 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–6.

Every game

How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Raiders	L 27–33	28%	−28
Week 2	vs Chiefs	W 36–35	67%	+33
Week 3	@ Lions	W 19–17	52%	+49
Week 4	@ Broncos	W 23–7	89%	+11
Week 5	vs Colts	W 31–25	69%	+31
Week 6	vs Chargers	W 34–6	67%	+33
Week 7	vs Bengals	L 17–41	17%	−17
Week 9	vs Vikings	W 34–31	92%	+8
Week 10	@ Dolphins	L 10–22	64%	−64
Week 11	@ Bears	W 16–13	63%	+37
Week 12	vs Browns	W 16–10	79%	+21
Week 13	@ Steelers	L 19–20	30%	−30
Week 14	@ Browns	L 22–24	26%	−26
Week 15	vs Packers	L 30–31	23%	−23
Week 16	@ Bengals	L 21–41	17%	−17
Week 17	vs Rams	L 19–20	16%	−16
Week 18	vs Steelers	L 13–16	83%	−83

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −28 @ LV

Wk 2 +33 vs KC

Wk 3 +49 @ DET

Wk 4 +11 @ DEN

Wk 5 +31 vs IND

Wk 6 +33 vs LAC

Wk 7 −17 vs CIN

Wk 9 +8 vs MIN

Wk 10 −64 @ MIA

Wk 11 +37 @ CHI

Wk 12 +21 vs CLE

Wk 13 −30 @ PIT

Wk 14 −26 @ CLE

Wk 15 −23 vs GB

Wk 16 −17 @ CIN

Wk 17 −16 vs LA

Wk 18 −83 vs PIT

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.80	+30.1
Fumble bounces	+0.35	+4.7
Rest	−0.02	−0.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.55	−2.6
Judgment calls	−0.94	+1.4
Injuries	−1.14	−45.8