luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Ravens, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Chargers 34–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 6
Baltimore Ravens 34

October 17, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +33 Ravens lucky · −33 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 34 BAL 17
  2. 2 LAC 24 BAL 16
  3. 3 LAC 13 BAL 10
  4. 4 LAC 24 BAL 26
  5. 5 LAC 19 BAL 24
  6. 6 LAC 24 BAL 31
  7. 7 LAC 13 BAL 24
  8. 8 LAC 23 BAL 38
  9. 9 LAC 7 BAL 27
  10. 10 LAC 13 BAL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 33% of them, Ravens 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+5.9%
Chargers by 9–169.2%
Chargers by 1–817.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Ravens by 1–825.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 17+20.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.4 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 28, without the luck Ravens by 17.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 35 yards, Ravens 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Josh Oliver), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% LAC +1.7 pts
Q3 7:39 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 6:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 11:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Keenan Allen), 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 10:41 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BAL +2.2 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% LAC LAC: Punt
2 Q1 12:00 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% BAL LAC: Punt
3 Q1 9:55 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:09 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% BAL LAC: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Josh Oliver), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +2% LAC LAC: Punt
6 Q2 7:08 J. Tucker made 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 24 of 29 from 45+ before +2% BAL BAL: Turnover
7 Q2 4:04 The Chargers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +3% BAL LAC: End of half
8 Q2 0:24 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +2% LAC BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (BAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 28
Luck in points
10.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 17.6
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 33% · Ravens 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Chargers · Ravens

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