luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Los Angeles Chargers, 2021: game by game

The Chargers went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.8 wins. Luck cost them 1.8: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Every game

How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Washington W 20–16 89% +11
Week 2 vs Cowboys L 17–20 40% −40
Week 3 @ Chiefs W 30–24 37% +63
Week 4 vs Raiders W 28–14 78% +22
Week 5 vs Browns W 47–42 53% +47
Week 6 @ Ravens L 6–34 33% −33
Week 8 vs Patriots L 24–27 76% −76
Week 9 @ Eagles W 27–24 79% +21
Week 10 vs Vikings L 20–27 76% −76
Week 11 vs Steelers W 41–37 98% +2
Week 12 @ Broncos L 13–28 61% −61
Week 13 @ Bengals W 41–22 70% +30
Week 14 vs Giants W 37–21 91% +9
Week 15 vs Chiefs L 28–34 27% −27
Week 16 @ Texans L 29–41 76% −76
Week 17 vs Broncos W 34–13 53% +47
Week 18 @ Raiders L 32–35 42% −42

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.67+25.9
3rd & 4th downs+0.22+6.0
Fumble bounces+0.12−6.3
Judgment calls−0.71−23.9
Kicks−1.25−14.9