luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Chargers, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Giants 37–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:00 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 21
Los Angeles Chargers 37

December 12, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −9.5

Luck index +9 Chargers about even · −9 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 37 LAC 31
  2. 2 NYG 24 LAC 27
  3. 3 NYG 32 LAC 38
  4. 4 NYG 20 LAC 27
  5. 5 NYG 16 LAC 26
  6. 6 NYG 24 LAC 37
  7. 7 NYG 13 LAC 30
  8. 8 NYG 10 LAC 31
  9. 9 NYG 8 LAC 34
  10. 10 NYG 3 LAC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 9% of them, Chargers 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.5%
Giants by 9–162.1%
Giants by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Chargers by 1–817.2%
Chargers by 9–1622.1%
Chargers by 17+50.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 16, without the luck Chargers by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 3 for 20 yards, Chargers 6 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:28 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 13:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Lorenzo Carter), 5 yards 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q2 4:19 False Start on the Chargers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +1.0 pts
Q3 9:40 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q3 2:06 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Kenneth Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 1:29 False Start on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 7:52 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Kenneth Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.2 pts
Q4 3:34 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q4 2:38 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 15 yards 0% NYG +0.5 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% LAC NYG: Punt
2 Q1 9:30 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% LAC NYG: Punt
3 Q1 3:00 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:13 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:55 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% LAC NYG: Punt
6 Q2 8:43 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% LAC LAC: Field goal
7 Q2 1:54 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% NYG LAC: Punt
8 Q2 0:25 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by m.glennon · 1.9 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kadarius Toney (NYG WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Chargers 100%

Final margin
Chargers by 16
Luck in points
5.4 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 9% · Chargers 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Giants · Chargers

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