Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Packers, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Bears 45–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Packers were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:09 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 57 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 30 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Packers about even · −13 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Packers win 9.
- 1 CHI 25 GB 17
- 2 CHI 32 GB 34
- 3 CHI 18 GB 23
- 4 CHI 34 GB 41
- 5 CHI 6 GB 17
- 6 CHI 16 GB 30
- 7 CHI 13 GB 30
- 8 CHI 14 GB 35
- 9 CHI 24 GB 49
- 10 CHI 13 GB 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 13% of them, Packers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Packers by 17+ | 47.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Santos, 44 yds made · 77% expected
- M. Crosby, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Santos, 43 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Bears 7 for 41 yards, Packers 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:06 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Kingsley Keke), 5 yards | +2% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q1 5:26 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards | +6% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:24 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Deon Bush), 8 yards | +2% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:49 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +1% CHI +1.0 pts |
| Q3 4:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Artie Burns), 8 yards | +2% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:39 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 6 yards, wiping out the play | +3% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 4 yards | +2% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:45 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Illegal Shift on the Bears (Jakeem Grant), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.4 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:24 | The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 2:22 | The Packers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% GB | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:59 | The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% GB | GB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:04 | The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +12% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:09 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams | +57% GB | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 3:30 | The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +20% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:54 | Return touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams | +20% CHI | CHI: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:40 | The Bears fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% GB | CHI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Randall Cobb (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Andy Dalton (CHI QB), out, replaced by j.fields · 2.5 pts
- Khalil Mack (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Duke Shelley (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 0% · Packers 100%
- Final margin
- Packers by 15
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 10.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 13% · Packers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · 
Bears · 
Packers
More from Week 14 2021
- Steelers at Vikings MIN 36–28 · replay 85% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 24–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 20–0 · replay 89% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 48–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Jets NO 30–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Seahawks at Texans SEA 33–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Lions at Broncos DEN 38–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Giants at Chargers LAC 37–21 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Buccaneers TB 33–27 · replay 73% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 26–23 · replay 37% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 30–23 · replay 70% for the winner