luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Browns, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Ravens 24–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:17 left): Onside kick recovered by the Ravens, worth 31 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 22
Cleveland Browns 24

December 12, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +26 Browns lucky · −26 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 BAL 27 CLE 9
  2. 2 BAL 26 CLE 17
  3. 3 BAL 33 CLE 30
  4. 4 BAL 23 CLE 26
  5. 5 BAL 27 CLE 33
  6. 6 BAL 13 CLE 22
  7. 7 BAL 20 CLE 32
  8. 8 BAL 21 CLE 36
  9. 9 BAL 13 CLE 34
  10. 10 BAL 16 CLE 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 26% of them, Browns 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+3.7%
Ravens by 9–167.8%
Ravens by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation2.7%
Browns by 1–823.2%
Browns by 9–1619.4%
Browns by 17+30.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.9 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 2, without the luck Ravens by 10.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 41 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 10 for 129 yards, Browns 4 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 7 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +1.8 pts
Q1 10:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 18 yards +4% CLE +2.6 pts
Q1 8:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 30 yards +6% CLE +1.8 pts
Q1 0:13 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CLE +2.4 pts
Q2 8:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 2 yards +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 12:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Devonta Freeman), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.9 pts
Q3 8:14 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 7:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:44 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% CLE +1.1 pts
Q3 5:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Jacob Phillips), 15 yards +1% BAL +2.0 pts
Q3 4:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% CLE +1.1 pts
Q3 4:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Rashod Bateman), 10 yards 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 7:07 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens, 14 yards +2% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 5:33 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 30 yardsJudgment calls +6% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 5:45 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:13 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:13 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:58 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +7% CLE BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 7:07 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Ravens, 14 yardsJudgment calls +6% CLE BAL: Punt
7 Q4 1:17 Onside kick recovered by the RavensSpecial teams +31% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:00 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +25% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (CLE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 86% · Browns 14%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
12.9 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 26% · Browns 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Ravens · Browns

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