luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Titans, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 20–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 74% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 0
Tennessee Titans 20

December 12, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −8.5

Luck index +11 Titans about even · −11 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 10 TEN 3
  2. 2 JAX 15 TEN 17
  3. 3 JAX 16 TEN 21
  4. 4 JAX 24 TEN 31
  5. 5 JAX 9 TEN 19
  6. 6 JAX 17 TEN 30
  7. 7 JAX 7 TEN 23
  8. 8 JAX 3 TEN 22
  9. 9 JAX 0 TEN 23
  10. 10 JAX 3 TEN 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 11% of them, Titans 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.4%
Jaguars by 9–162.5%
Jaguars by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
Titans by 1–818.4%
Titans by 9–1622.2%
Titans by 17+48.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 20, without the luck Titans by 16.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 47 yds missed · 78% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Bullock, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 9 for 79 yards, Titans 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards +5% TEN +1.8 pts
Q1 3:45 Encroachment on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 12:46 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 9:09 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 0:33 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 5:42 Low Block on the Jaguars, 15 yards +2% TEN +1.8 pts
Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 12:05 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Titans (Dane Cruikshank), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 11:01 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 4:24 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 9 yards, wiping out the play +1% TEN +1.7 pts
Q4 3:32 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% JAX +1.7 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:37 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q1 6:29 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +4% TEN JAX: Punt
5 Q1 0:42 R. Bullock missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 16 of 24 from 45+ before +6% JAX TEN: Field goal
6 Q2 0:23 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% JAX TEN: Punt
7 Q3 13:42 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 Q3 2:56 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamal Agnew (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dan Arnold (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 20
Luck in points
3.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 16.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 11% · Titans 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Jaguars · Titans

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