luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2021: game by game

The Titans went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck added 2.5: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.9.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Cardinals L 13–38 22% −22
Week 2 @ Seahawks W 33–30 65% +35
Week 3 vs Colts W 25–16 62% +38
Week 4 @ Jets L 24–27 70% −70
Week 5 @ Jaguars W 37–19 62% +38
Week 6 vs Bills W 34–31 57% +43
Week 7 vs Chiefs W 27–3 86% +14
Week 8 @ Colts W 34–31 38% +62
Week 9 @ Rams W 28–16 35% +65
Week 10 vs Saints W 23–21 37% +63
Week 11 vs Texans L 13–22 87% −87
Week 12 @ Patriots L 13–36 14% −14
Week 14 vs Jaguars W 20–0 89% +11
Week 15 @ Steelers L 13–19 33% −33
Week 16 vs 49ers W 20–17 33% +67
Week 17 vs Dolphins W 34–3 89% +11
Week 18 @ Texans W 28–25 71% +29
Divisional round vs Bengals L 16–19 87% −87

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.54+10.0
Rest−0.03−1.2
Fumble bounces−0.08−6.3
Kicks−0.10+0.2
Injuries−0.26−10.9
Judgment calls−0.97−2.9