luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Titans, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Texans stole one. They beat the Titans 22–13, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:01 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 26 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 22
Tennessee Titans 13

November 21, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −10.5

Luck index +87 Texans very lucky · −87 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 22 TEN 17
  2. 2 HOU 21 TEN 24
  3. 3 HOU 16 TEN 21
  4. 4 HOU 13 TEN 20
  5. 5 HOU 6 TEN 16
  6. 6 HOU 17 TEN 30
  7. 7 HOU 3 TEN 19
  8. 8 HOU 14 TEN 33
  9. 9 HOU 17 TEN 40
  10. 10 HOU 13 TEN 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.9%
Texans by 9–163.0%
Texans by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation1.6%
Titans by 1–820.6%
Titans by 9–1623.5%
Titans by 17+42.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 9, without the luck Texans by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 50 yards, Titans 5 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Desmond King), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 11:20 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q1 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +5% TEN +1.2 pts
Q2 11:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 10:31 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards +5% HOU +1.8 pts
Q2 7:38 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Ross Blacklock), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.2 pts
Q2 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 7 yards +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 0:10 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Ross Blacklock), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.3 pts
Q2 0:09 Intentional Grounding on the Titans (Ryan Tannehill), 10 yards +2% HOU +1.4 pts
Q3 1:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Terrence Brooks), 15 yards +3% TEN +1.2 pts
Q4 3:30 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.1 pts
Q4 0:23 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.1 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:26 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 12:26 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q1 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% TEN TEN: Turnover
4 Q1 0:01 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +26% HOU TEN: Punt
5 Q2 13:38 K. Fairbairn made 24-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:38 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% HOU TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 3:53 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% HOU TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 2:20 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% HOU TEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Greg Mabin (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dane Cruikshank (TEN SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (TEN TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 89% · Titans 11%

Final margin
Texans by 9
Luck in points
3.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Texans · Titans

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