luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · November 18, 2021–November 22

Week 11 2021: who deserved to win

3 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Titans 22–13 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Texans 22–13 @ Titans 22% 13% Lucky
Colts 41–15 @ Bills 29% 59% Coin flip
Washington 27–21 @ Panthers 40% 68% Deserved
Cardinals 23–13 @ Seahawks 43% 62% Deserved
Vikings 34–31 vs Packers 47% 44% Coin flip

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 22–13 @ Titans 13% +87
2 Vikings W 34–31 vs Packers 44% +56
3 Dolphins W 24–17 @ Jets 48% +52
4 Bengals W 32–13 @ Raiders 50% +50
5 Eagles W 40–29 vs Saints 57% +43
6 Colts W 41–15 @ Bills 59% +41
7 Cardinals W 23–13 @ Seahawks 62% +38
8 Ravens W 16–13 @ Bears 63% +37
9 Washington W 27–21 @ Panthers 68% +32
10 Browns W 13–10 vs Lions 70% +30
11 Chiefs W 19–9 vs Cowboys 84% +16
12 49ers W 30–10 @ Jaguars 91% +9
13 Patriots W 25–0 @ Falcons 93% +7
14 Buccaneers W 30–10 vs Giants 97% +3
15 Chargers W 41–37 vs Steelers 98% +2
16 Steelers L 37–41 @ Chargers 2% −2
17 Giants L 10–30 @ Buccaneers 3% −3
18 Falcons L 0–25 vs Patriots 7% −7
19 Jaguars L 10–30 vs 49ers 9% −9
20 Cowboys L 9–19 @ Chiefs 16% −16
21 Lions L 10–13 @ Browns 30% −30
22 Panthers L 21–27 vs Washington 32% −32
23 Bears L 13–16 vs Ravens 37% −37
24 Seahawks L 13–23 vs Cardinals 38% −38
25 Bills L 15–41 vs Colts 41% −41
26 Saints L 29–40 @ Eagles 43% −43
27 Raiders L 13–32 vs Bengals 50% −50
28 Jets L 17–24 vs Dolphins 52% −52
29 Packers L 31–34 @ Vikings 56% −56
30 Titans L 13–22 vs Texans 87% −87