luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Chargers, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Steelers 41–37, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:40 left): the Steelers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 37
Los Angeles Chargers 41

November 21, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −5.5

Luck index +2 Chargers about even · −2 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Chargers win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 30 LAC 33
  2. 2 PIT 17 LAC 24
  3. 3 PIT 20 LAC 30
  4. 4 PIT 20 LAC 34
  5. 5 PIT 20 LAC 37
  6. 6 PIT 13 LAC 33
  7. 7 PIT 20 LAC 43
  8. 8 PIT 0 LAC 27
  9. 9 PIT 10 LAC 41
  10. 10 PIT 3 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 2% of them, Chargers 98%. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.1%
Steelers by 9–160.4%
Steelers by 1–81.7%
Level after regulation0.3%
Chargers by 1–87.8%
Chargers by 9–1618.3%
Chargers by 17+71.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.5 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Chargers by 4, without the luck Chargers by 15.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 8 for 38 yards, Chargers 12 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q1 9:54 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 8:43 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 7:50 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% PIT +1.8 pts
Q1 2:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers, 3 yards +2% LAC +0.4 pts
Q1 2:17 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +1.1 pts
Q1 2:09 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.2 pts
Q2 0:51 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Karl Joseph), 5 yards +2% LAC +0.3 pts
Q2 0:39 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 6 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% LAC +1.0 pts
Q2 0:06 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q3 14:23 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 7:51 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +2.9 pts
Q3 6:06 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 5 yards +1% LAC +1.2 pts
Q3 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +2.9 pts
Q3 3:49 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 11:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 4 yards, wiping out the play +11% PIT +7.1 pts
Q4 9:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 6 yards +1% LAC +1.2 pts
Q4 4:36 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 6 yards +2% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 1:19 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:02 The Chargers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:40 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +14% LAC PIT: Touchdown
3 Q3 14:02 The Chargers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:40 Blocked punt by the SteelersSpecial teams +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:48 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +11% PIT LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:34 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% LAC PIT: Field goal
8 Q4 3:29 C. Boswell made 45-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him, 18 of 20 from 45+ before +8% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Tillery (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Linval Joseph (LAC NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Covington (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT SS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 2% · Chargers 98%

Final margin
Chargers by 4
Luck in points
11.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 2% · Chargers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Steelers · Chargers

More from Week 11 2021