luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Eagles, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Saints 40–29, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:17 left): Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

New Orleans Saints 29
Philadelphia Eagles 40

November 21, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +43 Eagles lucky · −43 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 NO 33 PHI 10
  2. 2 NO 37 PHI 23
  3. 3 NO 18 PHI 10
  4. 4 NO 34 PHI 31
  5. 5 NO 27 PHI 29
  6. 6 NO 26 PHI 30
  7. 7 NO 23 PHI 30
  8. 8 NO 14 PHI 27
  9. 9 NO 29 PHI 47
  10. 10 NO 10 PHI 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 43% of them, Eagles 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+9.4%
Saints by 9–1613.2%
Saints by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation3.1%
Eagles by 1–823.7%
Eagles by 9–1615.4%
Eagles by 17+17.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 11, without the luck Saints by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Elliott, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 3 for 25 yards, Eagles 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:04 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q1 2:58 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +1.2 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% PHI +4.0 pts
Q2 5:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NO +3.5 pts
Q3 11:54 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 8:30 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:49 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Eagles (Jack Stoll), 9 yards 0% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 10:52 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 15 yards +2% NO +0.8 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 10:32 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% NO PHI: Punt
3 Q1 9:01 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:49 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q2 13:09 The Saints converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 551 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +4% NO NO: Punt
8 Q2 0:34 Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +7% PHI PHI: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.siemian · 4.5 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 16% · Eagles 84%

Final margin
Eagles by 11
Luck in points
11.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Saints 43% · Eagles 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Saints · Eagles

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