luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2021: game by game

The Eagles went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Falcons W 32–6 69% +31
Week 2 vs 49ers L 11–17 53% −53
Week 3 @ Cowboys L 21–41 26% −26
Week 4 vs Chiefs L 30–42 5% −5
Week 5 @ Panthers W 21–18 38% +62
Week 6 vs Buccaneers L 22–28 15% −15
Week 7 @ Raiders L 22–33 15% −15
Week 8 @ Lions W 44–6 98% +2
Week 9 vs Chargers L 24–27 21% −21
Week 10 @ Broncos W 30–13 70% +30
Week 11 vs Saints W 40–29 57% +43
Week 12 @ Giants L 7–13 77% −77
Week 13 @ Jets W 33–18 67% +33
Week 15 vs Washington W 27–17 92% +8
Week 16 vs Giants W 34–10 95% +5
Week 17 @ Washington W 20–16 56% +44
Week 18 vs Cowboys L 26–51 6% −6
Wild Card @ Buccaneers L 15–31 11% −11

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.53+22.1
Kicks+0.12+11.8
Rest+0.04+2.0
Fumble bounces−0.04−1.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.12+3.3
Judgment calls−0.51−24.3