luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Eagles, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:11 left): J. Elliott missed 41-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 10
Philadelphia Eagles 34

December 26, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −11

Luck index +5 Eagles about even · −5 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 17 PHI 10
  2. 2 NYG 20 PHI 23
  3. 3 NYG 14 PHI 20
  4. 4 NYG 10 PHI 19
  5. 5 NYG 3 PHI 15
  6. 6 NYG 9 PHI 23
  7. 7 NYG 6 PHI 23
  8. 8 NYG 9 PHI 29
  9. 9 NYG 3 PHI 27
  10. 10 NYG 10 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 5% of them, Eagles 95%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.3%
Giants by 9–161.2%
Giants by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
Eagles by 1–814.1%
Eagles by 9–1620.4%
Eagles by 17+60.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Eagles by 24, without the luck Eagles by 30.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds missed · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 40 yards, Eagles 11 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:01 Illegal Touch Kick on the Eagles, 5 yards 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q1 9:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +1.4 pts
Q1 2:47 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards +3% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 13:08 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.1 pts
Q2 8:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +2.1 pts
Q2 8:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Julian Love), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 3:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 5 yards +4% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 1:46 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards +3% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 14:10 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Quez Watkins), 10 yards +3% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 9:07 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 7:48 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 3:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Milton Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 14:29 Face Mask on the Giants (Julian Love), 15 yards 0% PHI +2.7 pts
Q4 10:29 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 6:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Josiah Scott), 15 yards 0% NYG +1.7 pts
Q4 4:32 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Devontae Booker), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 4:02 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Tarron Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% NYG PHI: Punt
2 Q1 9:35 The Giants converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 2281 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +6% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q1 0:46 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 14:11 The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 10:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
6 Q2 8:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 791 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Julian Love), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 2236 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q2 7:11 J. Elliott missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +10% NYG PHI: Field goal
8 Q2 2:12 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% NYG PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by m.glennon · 1.9 pts
  • Nate Solder (NYG T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 24
Luck in points
6.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 30.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 5% · Eagles 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Giants · Eagles

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