luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Raiders, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 17–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:28 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 22 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 13
Las Vegas Raiders 17

December 26, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −1

Luck index +23 Raiders about even · −23 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 19 LV 6
  2. 2 DEN 10 LV 7
  3. 3 DEN 7 LV 9
  4. 4 DEN 26 LV 30
  5. 5 DEN 17 LV 23
  6. 6 DEN 6 LV 15
  7. 7 DEN 17 LV 30
  8. 8 DEN 20 LV 36
  9. 9 DEN 10 LV 30
  10. 10 DEN 0 LV 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 23% of them, Raiders 77%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+2.1%
Broncos by 9–166.6%
Broncos by 1–813.3%
Level after regulation4.5%
Raiders by 1–826.4%
Raiders by 9–1622.0%
Raiders by 17+25.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 4, without the luck Raiders by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 69% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 3 for 30 yards, Raiders 3 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:12 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 6 yards +4% DEN +1.2 pts
Q1 6:46 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 15 yards +5% DEN +1.3 pts
Q1 5:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Casey Hayward), 16 yards +8% DEN +3.4 pts
Q2 12:30 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Shelby Harris), 15 yards +6% LV +3.0 pts
Q2 10:13 Illegal Use of Hands on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LV +2.0 pts
Q2 9:14 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.2 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Casey Hayward), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 2:09 The Raiders fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DEN LV: Turnover
3 Q3 3:28 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% DEN LV: Field goal
4 Q3 0:19 B. McManus missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 31 of 43 from 45+ before +16% LV DEN: Punt
5 Q4 13:48 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q4 5:31 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% DEN DEN: Punt
7 Q4 4:34 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% LV DEN: Punt
8 Q4 2:10 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% LV LV: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Facyson (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bryan Edwards (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Abram (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Hankins (LV NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Teddy Bridgewater (DEN QB), out, replaced by d.lock · 4.8 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kenny Young (DEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 30% · Raiders 70%

Final margin
Raiders by 4
Luck in points
3.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 23% · Raiders 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Broncos · Raiders

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