Week 16 2021 · December 23, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
49ers at Titans, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the 49ers 20–17, but the 49ers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): R. Bullock made 44-yard field goal, worth 18 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Titans very lucky · −67 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 7, Titans win 3.
- 1 SF 37 TEN 13
- 2 SF 17 TEN 0
- 3 SF 26 TEN 13
- 4 SF 27 TEN 17
- 5 SF 21 TEN 14
- 6 SF 21 TEN 16
- 7 SF 12 TEN 10
- 8 SF 12 TEN 14
- 9 SF 24 TEN 31
- 10 SF 0 TEN 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 67% of them, Titans 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 17.3% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 27.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Titans by 17+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Gould, 48 yds made · 71% expected
- R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: 49ers 5 for 41 yards, Titans 6 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:54 | Face Mask on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 15 yards | +3% SF +1.7 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Face Mask on the 49ers, 15 yards | +5% TEN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Chop Block on the Titans, 12 yards | +2% SF +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% SF +3.5 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Titans (Jayon Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SF +1.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:15 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 1:10 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% SF +1.8 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +4% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Marcell Harris), 6 yards | +5% TEN +0.6 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:55 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1494 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 | +15% SF | SF: End of half |
| 2 | Q3 14:15 | The Titans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +8% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 5:38 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% SF | SF: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 0:04 | The Titans converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +16% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 13:48 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:35 | The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:54 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +8% SF | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:09 | R. Bullock made 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +18% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out · 1.0 pts
- Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Rodger Saffold (TEN G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Monty Rice (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Mike McGlinchey (SF T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Mohamed Sanu (SF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Tavon Wilson (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Elijah Mitchell (SF RB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 16% · Titans 84%
- Final margin
- Titans by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 67% · Titans 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · 
49ers · 
Titans
More from Week 16 2021
- Browns at Packers GB 24–22 · replay 48% for the winner
- Colts at Cardinals IND 22–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals CIN 41–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots BUF 33–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Lions at Falcons ATL 20–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Jaguars at Jets NYJ 26–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chargers at Texans HOU 41–29 · replay 24% for the winner
- Rams at Vikings LA 30–23 · replay 85% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 34–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 32–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bears at Seahawks CHI 25–24 · replay 37% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 17–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Steelers at Chiefs KC 36–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 56–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Dolphins at Saints MIA 20–3 · replay 70% for the winner