luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Jets, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Jaguars 26–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 33 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 21
New York Jets 26

December 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +45 Jets lucky · −45 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 JAX 24 NYJ 6
  2. 2 JAX 32 NYJ 20
  3. 3 JAX 13 NYJ 5
  4. 4 JAX 28 NYJ 24
  5. 5 JAX 31 NYJ 30
  6. 6 JAX 14 NYJ 17
  7. 7 JAX 21 NYJ 26
  8. 8 JAX 24 NYJ 32
  9. 9 JAX 15 NYJ 28
  10. 10 JAX 12 NYJ 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 45% of them, Jets 55%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+7.7%
Jaguars by 9–1613.5%
Jaguars by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation7.2%
Jets by 1–823.8%
Jets by 9–1615.1%
Jets by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.9 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jets by 5, without the luck Jets by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Wright, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Wright, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 2 for 10 yards, Jets 7 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 35 yards +8% JAX +2.6 pts
Q1 8:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Trevon Wesco), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 13:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q2 6:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 1:24 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q3 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 7:46 Delay of Game on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 5:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 15 yards +8% JAX +1.6 pts
Q4 1:54 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +1.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:08 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +17% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:21 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:08 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 1 yardPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 1215 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +23% NYJ JAX: Field goal
4 Q2 0:16 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +12% JAX NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 9:24 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:04 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
7 Q4 1:49 E. Pineiro made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +20% JAX NYJ: End of game
8 Q4 0:12 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +33% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Flacco (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by z.wilson · 1.5 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • John Franklin-Myers (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Riley (NYJ DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Folorunso Fatukasi (NYJ DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jamal Agnew (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dan Arnold (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 1% · Jets 99%

Final margin
Jets by 5
Luck in points
11.9 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 45% · Jets 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Jaguars · Jets

More from Week 16 2021