2021 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2021: game by game

The Jaguars went 3–14 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.5 wins. Luck cost them 2.5: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texans	L 21–37	17%	−17
Week 2	vs Broncos	L 13–23	12%	−12
Week 3	vs Cardinals	L 19–31	9%	−9
Week 4	@ Bengals	L 21–24	58%	−58
Week 5	vs Titans	L 19–37	38%	−38
Week 6	vs Dolphins	W 23–20	62%	+38
Week 8	@ Seahawks	L 7–31	43%	−43
Week 9	vs Bills	W 9–6	41%	+59
Week 10	@ Colts	L 17–23	29%	−29
Week 11	vs 49ers	L 10–30	9%	−9
Week 12	vs Falcons	L 14–21	15%	−15
Week 13	@ Rams	L 7–37	3%	−3
Week 14	@ Titans	L 0–20	11%	−11
Week 15	vs Texans	L 16–30	69%	−69
Week 16	@ Jets	L 21–26	45%	−45
Week 17	@ Patriots	L 10–50	5%	−5
Week 18	vs Colts	W 26–11	82%	+18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −17 @ HOU

Wk 2 −12 vs DEN

Wk 3 −9 vs ARI

Wk 4 −58 @ CIN

Wk 5 −38 vs TEN

Wk 6 +38 vs MIA

Wk 8 −43 @ SEA

Wk 9 +59 vs BUF

Wk 10 −29 @ IND

Wk 11 −9 vs SF

Wk 12 −15 vs ATL

Wk 13 −3 @ LA

Wk 14 −11 @ TEN

Wk 15 −69 vs HOU

Wk 16 −45 @ NYJ

Wk 17 −5 @ NE

Wk 18 +18 vs IND

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.90	−15.2
Injuries	+0.65	+21.1
Judgment calls	+0.52	+9.8
Fumble bounces	−0.41	−18.9
3rd & 4th downs	−0.53	−5.6