2020 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2020: game by game

The Jaguars went 1–15 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck cost them 2.3: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–6.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Colts	W 27–20	31%	+69
Week 2	@ Titans	L 30–33	34%	−34
Week 3	vs Dolphins	L 13–31	35%	−35
Week 4	@ Bengals	L 25–33	33%	−33
Week 5	@ Texans	L 14–30	8%	−8
Week 6	vs Lions	L 16–34	18%	−18
Week 7	@ Chargers	L 29–39	16%	−16
Week 9	vs Texans	L 25–27	40%	−40
Week 10	@ Packers	L 20–24	13%	−13
Week 11	vs Steelers	L 3–27	5%	−5
Week 12	vs Browns	L 25–27	28%	−28
Week 13	@ Vikings	L 24–27	23%	−23
Week 14	vs Titans	L 10–31	10%	−10
Week 15	@ Ravens	L 14–40	23%	−23
Week 16	vs Bears	L 17–41	12%	−12
Week 17	@ Colts	L 14–28	3%	−3

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +69 vs IND

Wk 2 −34 @ TEN

Wk 3 −35 vs MIA

Wk 4 −33 @ CIN

Wk 5 −8 @ HOU

Wk 6 −18 vs DET

Wk 7 −16 @ LAC

Wk 9 −40 vs HOU

Wk 10 −13 @ GB

Wk 11 −5 vs PIT

Wk 12 −28 vs CLE

Wk 13 −23 @ MIN

Wk 14 −10 vs TEN

Wk 15 −23 @ BAL

Wk 16 −12 vs CHI

Wk 17 −3 @ IND

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	−0.05	−2.2
Injuries	−0.10	−4.6
Kicks	−0.20	−2.9
3rd & 4th downs	−0.46	−7.3
Judgment calls	−0.51	−21.3