luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Jaguars, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Jaguars 41–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bears were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:47 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dakota Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 41
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

December 27, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Bears −9.5

Luck index +12 Bears about even · −12 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 CHI 38 JAX 6
  2. 2 CHI 41 JAX 17
  3. 3 CHI 36 JAX 16
  4. 4 CHI 31 JAX 14
  5. 5 CHI 34 JAX 20
  6. 6 CHI 24 JAX 13
  7. 7 CHI 27 JAX 19
  8. 8 CHI 17 JAX 13
  9. 9 CHI 19 JAX 17
  10. 10 CHI 13 JAX 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 88% of them, Jaguars 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+49.0%
Bears by 9–1621.1%
Bears by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Jaguars by 1–86.8%
Jaguars by 9–162.8%
Jaguars by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.4 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 24, without the luck Bears by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 4 for 40 yards, Jaguars 10 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 21 yards +3% CHI +1.9 pts
Q2 14:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI 0.0 pts
Q2 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dakota Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CHI +1.6 pts
Q2 4:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Trevis Gipson), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 1:41 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q2 0:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 13 yards +2% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 9:14 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Bears (Xavier Crawford), 15 yards +2% JAX +1.4 pts
Q3 9:06 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Eric Saubert), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CHI +2.0 pts
Q3 7:35 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Bruce Miller), 15 yards +3% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 1:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Shaquille Quarterman), 15 yards 0% CHI +1.4 pts
Q4 11:47 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.3 pts
Q4 2:17 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Trevis Gipson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.2 pts
Q4 2:00 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Mike Glennon), 21 yards 0% CHI +1.7 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:38 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q2 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dakota Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 356 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +10% CHI CHI: Turnover
3 Q2 4:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Trevis Gipson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 83 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +5% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q2 0:50 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% CHI CHI: Turnover
5 Q2 0:17 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q3 12:28 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% JAX CHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:23 The Bears converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:35 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Bruce Miller), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 139 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luq Barcoo (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Cooke (JAX P), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • James Robinson (JAX RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI DB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Buster Skrine (CHI DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bobby Massie (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 92% · Jaguars 8%

Final margin
Bears by 24
Luck in points
16.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Bears 88% · Jaguars 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Bears · Jaguars

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