luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Lions, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Lions 47–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 81% favorites.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47
Detroit Lions 7

December 26, 2020 · Ford Field · Closing line: Buccaneers −12

Luck index +1 Buccaneers about even · −1 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 10, Lions win 0.

  1. 1 TB 61 DET 14
  2. 2 TB 41 DET 3
  3. 3 TB 48 DET 17
  4. 4 TB 47 DET 20
  5. 5 TB 43 DET 20
  6. 6 TB 34 DET 14
  7. 7 TB 34 DET 18
  8. 8 TB 30 DET 17
  9. 9 TB 26 DET 17
  10. 10 TB 27 DET 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 99% of them, Lions 1%. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 40.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+84.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1611.0%
Buccaneers by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Lions by 1–80.9%
Lions by 9–160.2%
Lions by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 40, without the luck Buccaneers by 37.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 8 for 65 yards, Lions 11 for 117 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:09 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Everson Griffen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 10:11 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +1.1 pts
Q2 2:01 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 1:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +3.6 pts
Q3 13:34 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +1.1 pts
Q3 9:38 Taunting on the Lions, 15 yards 0% TB +1.4 pts
Q3 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% DET +1.5 pts
Q3 7:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions, 7 yards 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q3 5:28 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 1:39 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Duron Harmon), 15 yards 0% TB +3.1 pts
Q3 0:06 False Start on the Buccaneers (LeSean McCoy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 14:26 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q4 14:22 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 15 yards 0% DET +1.5 pts
Q4 10:25 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Austin Bryant), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 10:05 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Austin Bryant), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% TB +1.6 pts
Q4 10:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 35 yards 0% TB +2.2 pts
Q4 7:16 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 6:21 Illegal Blindside Block on the Lions, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% TB +2.0 pts
Q4 2:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 15 yards 0% DET +1.4 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Everson Griffen), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 11 flags in 1518 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +4% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:50 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:43 The Buccaneers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +2% DET TB: Touchdown
4 Q1 10:37 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% TB DET: Punt
5 Q1 10:11 False Start on the Lions, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q1 5:47 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% TB DET: Punt
7 Q1 0:20 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% DET TB: Punt
8 Q2 14:29 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +2% TB DET: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Ragnow (DET OL), out · 0.8 pts
  • Desmond Trufant (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jamie Collins (DET LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrell Crosby (DET OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Danny Shelton (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jayron Kearse (DET DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jayron Kearse (DET S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Lions 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 40
Luck in points
2.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 37.2
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 99% · Lions 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Buccaneers · Lions

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