luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Ravens, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Giants 27–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 77% favorites.

Final

New York Giants 13
Baltimore Ravens 27

December 27, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −10

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 24 BAL 18
  2. 2 NYG 17 BAL 19
  3. 3 NYG 14 BAL 20
  4. 4 NYG 16 BAL 24
  5. 5 NYG 6 BAL 17
  6. 6 NYG 17 BAL 31
  7. 7 NYG 0 BAL 17
  8. 8 NYG 10 BAL 30
  9. 9 NYG 7 BAL 30
  10. 10 NYG 0 BAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 8% of them, Ravens 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.4%
Giants by 9–161.6%
Giants by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Ravens by 1–819.2%
Ravens by 9–1625.4%
Ravens by 17+45.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Giants: the final margin was Ravens by 14, without the luck Ravens by 16.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 35 yards, Ravens 10 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:09 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 6:09 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q1 0:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Tae Crowder), 10 yards +2% BAL +1.0 pts
Q1 0:02 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 10:11 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 7:29 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:40 Illegal Touch Pass on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 0 yards 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q3 10:58 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 7:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Kaden Smith), 10 yards +1% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 11:03 Roughing the Kicker on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 15 yards +1% NYG +2.4 pts
Q4 10:49 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 9:34 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Derek Wolfe), 5 yards 0% NYG +0.3 pts
Q4 9:29 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q4 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYG +2.0 pts
Q4 1:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 10 yards 0% NYG +0.2 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:35 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:09 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% BAL NYG: Punt
3 Q1 1:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Tae Crowder), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 354 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +2% BAL BAL: Field goal
5 Q2 13:11 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +2% BAL NYG: Punt
6 Q2 4:48 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% NYG BAL: Field goal
7 Q2 1:15 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% BAL NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 5:35 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% BAL NYG: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Golden Tate (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Darnay Holmes (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Fackrell (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
2.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 8% · Ravens 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Giants · Ravens

More from Week 16 2020