luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Packers, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Titans 40–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:10 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Green Bay Packers 40

December 27, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +5 Packers about even · −5 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 27 GB 30
  2. 2 TEN 28 GB 34
  3. 3 TEN 28 GB 37
  4. 4 TEN 20 GB 31
  5. 5 TEN 13 GB 27
  6. 6 TEN 21 GB 38
  7. 7 TEN 28 GB 49
  8. 8 TEN 10 GB 35
  9. 9 TEN 5 GB 34
  10. 10 TEN 14 GB 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 5% of them, Packers 95%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.3%
Titans by 9–160.9%
Titans by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
Packers by 1–813.8%
Packers by 9–1619.7%
Packers by 17+61.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 26, without the luck Packers by 23.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 3 for 15 yards, Packers 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 5 yards +4% GB +1.2 pts
Q2 4:35 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% TEN +5.7 pts
Q3 7:26 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.1 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:34 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 3:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1873 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:37 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% GB TEN: Punt
5 Q2 4:35 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +4% TEN GB: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 4:22 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% TEN GB: End of half
7 Q3 12:10 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:42 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Raven Greene (GB S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Breon Borders (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derick Roberson (TEN OLB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 26
Luck in points
2.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 23.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 5% · Packers 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Titans · Packers

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