luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Raiders, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins stole one. They beat the Raiders 26–25, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

The Dolphins won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 56% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:19 left): Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yards, worth 31 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 26
Las Vegas Raiders 25

December 26, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2

Luck index +91 Dolphins very lucky · −91 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 30 LV 24
  2. 2 MIA 27 LV 30
  3. 3 MIA 28 LV 34
  4. 4 MIA 19 LV 27
  5. 5 MIA 19 LV 31
  6. 6 MIA 26 LV 41
  7. 7 MIA 24 LV 43
  8. 8 MIA 31 LV 53
  9. 9 MIA 20 LV 48
  10. 10 MIA 14 LV 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Dolphins won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

45 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.09 better by 0.02
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.13 better by 0.12
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.17 worse by 0.15
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.19 better by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 9% of them, Raiders 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.9%
Dolphins by 9–162.1%
Dolphins by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Raiders by 1–815.0%
Raiders by 9–1618.8%
Raiders by 17+56.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 1, without the luck Raiders by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Carlson, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 76 yards, Raiders 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:17 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +3% LV +1.7 pts
Q1 3:24 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 13:02 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Kavon Frazier), 7 yards +2% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 1:19 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 5 yards +1% LV +0.3 pts
Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Isaiah Johnson), 10 yards +4% MIA +0.9 pts
Q4 4:01 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% MIA +1.0 pts
Q4 2:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Byron Jones), 49 yards +19% LV +4.0 pts
Q4 1:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 0:19 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yards +31% MIA +1.6 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:38 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
2 Q4 6:09 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q4 4:08 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% LV MIA: Field goal
4 Q4 2:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Byron Jones), 49 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +19% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q4 0:23 D. Carlson made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +28% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q4 0:19 The game turned hereRoughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 595 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +31% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q4 0:06 J. Sanders made 44-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +9% MIA –
8 Q4 0:01 The Raiders fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Erik Harris (LV S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Kwiatkoski (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jeff Heath (LV S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Lawson (MIA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Solomon Kindley (MIA G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 32% · Raiders 68%

Final margin
Dolphins by 1
Luck in points
3.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 9% · Raiders 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Dolphins · Raiders

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