luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · December 25, 2020–December 28

Week 16 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Dolphins beat the Raiders 26–25 in a game they win 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 37–31 @ Texans 29% 37% Lucky
Jets 23–16 vs Browns 32% 61% Deserved
49ers 20–12 @ Cardinals 33% 95% Deserved
Cowboys 37–17 vs Eagles 41% 86% Deserved
Steelers 28–24 vs Colts 47% 53% Coin flip

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Dolphins W 26–25 @ Raiders 9% +91
2 Chargers W 19–16 vs Broncos 27% +73
3 Bengals W 37–31 @ Texans 37% +63
4 Steelers W 28–24 vs Colts 53% +47
5 Panthers W 20–13 @ Washington 54% +46
6 Jets W 23–16 vs Browns 61% +39
7 Seahawks W 20–9 vs Rams 61% +39
8 Cowboys W 37–17 vs Eagles 86% +14
9 Chiefs W 17–14 vs Falcons 87% +13
10 Bears W 41–17 @ Jaguars 88% +12
11 Ravens W 27–13 vs Giants 92% +8
12 Bills W 38–9 @ Patriots 93% +7
13 49ers W 20–12 @ Cardinals 95% +5
14 Packers W 40–14 vs Titans 95% +5
15 Saints W 52–33 vs Vikings 96% +4
16 Buccaneers W 47–7 @ Lions 99% +1
17 Lions L 7–47 vs Buccaneers 1% −1
18 Vikings L 33–52 @ Saints 4% −4
19 Titans L 14–40 @ Packers 5% −5
20 Cardinals L 12–20 vs 49ers 5% −5
21 Patriots L 9–38 vs Bills 7% −7
22 Giants L 13–27 @ Ravens 8% −8
23 Jaguars L 17–41 vs Bears 12% −12
24 Falcons L 14–17 @ Chiefs 13% −13
25 Eagles L 17–37 @ Cowboys 14% −14
26 Rams L 9–20 @ Seahawks 39% −39
27 Browns L 16–23 @ Jets 39% −39
28 Washington L 13–20 vs Panthers 46% −46
29 Colts L 24–28 @ Steelers 47% −47
30 Texans L 31–37 vs Bengals 63% −63
31 Broncos L 16–19 @ Chargers 73% −73
32 Raiders L 25–26 vs Dolphins 91% −91