2020 season · final
Chicago Bears, 2020: game by game
The Bears went 8–8 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.8 wins. Luck added 3.2: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Lions | W 27–23 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 2 | vs Giants | W 17–13 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 3 | @ Falcons | W 30–26 | 18% | +82 |
| Week 4 | vs Colts | L 11–19 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 5 | vs Buccaneers | W 20–19 | 42% | +58 |
| Week 6 | @ Panthers | W 23–16 | 21% | +79 |
| Week 7 | @ Rams | L 10–24 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 8 | vs Saints | L 23–26 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 9 | @ Titans | L 17–24 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 13–19 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 12 | @ Packers | L 25–41 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 13 | vs Lions | L 30–34 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 14 | vs Texans | W 36–7 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 15 | @ Vikings | W 33–27 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 16 | @ Jaguars | W 41–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 17 | vs Packers | L 16–35 | 6% | −6 |
| Wild Card | @ Saints | L 9–21 | 20% | −20 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.75 | +9.6 |
| Injuries | +0.40 | +14.1 |
| Kicks | +0.38 | +19.3 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.33 | −2.3 |