luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Bears, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Texans 36–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

Houston Texans 7
Chicago Bears 36

December 13, 2020 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Texans −1

Luck index +12 Bears about even · −12 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Bears win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 30 CHI 23
  2. 2 HOU 17 CHI 19
  3. 3 HOU 18 CHI 22
  4. 4 HOU 14 CHI 22
  5. 5 HOU 20 CHI 31
  6. 6 HOU 21 CHI 35
  7. 7 HOU 17 CHI 34
  8. 8 HOU 10 CHI 30
  9. 9 HOU 16 CHI 41
  10. 10 HOU 6 CHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 12% of them, Bears 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.9%
Texans by 9–163.2%
Texans by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation2.2%
Bears by 1–817.4%
Bears by 9–1621.6%
Bears by 17+48.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 29, without the luck Bears by 20.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Santos, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 6 for 50 yards, Bears 7 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.4 pts
Q2 13:23 False Start on the Bears (Jimmy Graham), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 5:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Justin Reid), 15 yards +2% CHI +2.5 pts
Q2 2:56 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.4 pts
Q2 2:09 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% CHI +1.4 pts
Q2 1:42 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 12:51 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% HOU +2.3 pts
Q3 12:31 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 5:32 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CHI +2.2 pts
Q3 2:07 False Start on the Bears (Javon Wims), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 4:27 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:37 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 12:05 False Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:26 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% CHI HOU: Punt
4 Q1 8:53 The Texans fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CHI HOU: Punt
5 Q1 7:30 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% HOU CHI: Punt
6 Q1 5:34 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% CHI HOU: Punt
7 Q1 2:18 The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 10:01 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bobby Massie (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Buster Skrine (CHI DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Randall Cobb (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • David Johnson (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • P.J. Hall (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 29
Luck in points
8.7 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 20.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 12% · Bears 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Texans · Bears

More from Week 14 2020