luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Seahawks, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Jets 40–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 89% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 3
Seattle Seahawks 40

December 13, 2020 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −16.5

Luck index +1 Seahawks about even · −1 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Seahawks win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 20 SEA 23
  2. 2 NYJ 10 SEA 18
  3. 3 NYJ 9 SEA 21
  4. 4 NYJ 7 SEA 22
  5. 5 NYJ 13 SEA 31
  6. 6 NYJ 6 SEA 27
  7. 7 NYJ 3 SEA 27
  8. 8 NYJ 6 SEA 33
  9. 9 NYJ 3 SEA 34
  10. 10 NYJ 7 SEA 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 1% of them, Seahawks 99%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.1%
Jets by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Seahawks by 1–84.5%
Seahawks by 9–1611.3%
Seahawks by 17+83.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +17.5 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 37, without the luck Seahawks by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Castillo, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • S. Castillo, 37 yds missed · 90% expected
  • S. Castillo, 41 yds missed · 85% expected
  • S. Castillo, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 50 yards, Seahawks 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 15:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +3% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q2 7:59 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYJ +2.7 pts
Q2 0:22 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.2 pts
Q3 12:30 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 5 yards +1% SEA +1.5 pts
Q3 10:57 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Marcus Maye), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% SEA +3.3 pts
Q3 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 6:49 Illegal Motion on the Seahawks (Penny Hart), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q3 2:51 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 1:26 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 12:07 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards 0% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 7:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 15 yards 0% SEA +1.9 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:30 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% SEA NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 10:26 S. Castillo made 45-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +3% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 6:05 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +3% SEA NYJ: Punt
4 Q1 1:41 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1811 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +3% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q2 7:59 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 642 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +4% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
7 Q2 2:32 S. Castillo missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +5% SEA NYJ: Missed field goal
8 Q2 0:07 S. Castillo missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +3% SEA NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Carlos Dunlap (SEA DE/L), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Jenkins (NYJ LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Seahawks 100%

Final margin
Seahawks by 37
Luck in points
17.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 1% · Seahawks 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Jets · Seahawks

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