luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Jaguars, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 31–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 71% favorites.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Jacksonville Jaguars 10

December 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7.5

Luck index +10 Titans about even · −10 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 37 JAX 3
  2. 2 TEN 44 JAX 17
  3. 3 TEN 36 JAX 14
  4. 4 TEN 31 JAX 13
  5. 5 TEN 27 JAX 13
  6. 6 TEN 34 JAX 24
  7. 7 TEN 17 JAX 10
  8. 8 TEN 19 JAX 15
  9. 9 TEN 26 JAX 24
  10. 10 TEN 24 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 90% of them, Jaguars 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+51.3%
Titans by 9–1620.7%
Titans by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jaguars by 1–86.6%
Jaguars by 9–162.7%
Jaguars by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Titans by 21, without the luck Titans by 26. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 53 yds blocked · 65% expected
  • A. Rosas, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 53 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 7 for 78 yards, Jaguars 10 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 6:36 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 1:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Tye Smith), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.5 pts
Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 13:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Mike Glennon), 10 yards +2% TEN +1.0 pts
Q3 10:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 10 yards 0% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 10:28 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yards 0% TEN +1.0 pts
Q3 8:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans, 15 yards 0% JAX +1.4 pts
Q3 3:59 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars (DJ Chark), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% TEN +3.2 pts
Q3 2:39 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +1.1 pts
Q3 1:39 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 12:18 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 10:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards 0% TEN +1.8 pts
Q4 9:49 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% JAX +2.9 pts
Q4 6:36 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 0:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Desmond King), 8 yards 0% JAX +0.6 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:56 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
2 Q1 9:21 A. Rosas had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 65% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +8% TEN JAX: Punt
3 Q1 5:05 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 9:51 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% JAX TEN: Turnover
6 Q2 4:32 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% JAX TEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:36 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% TEN JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 0:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luq Barcoo (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Norwell (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kenny Vaccaro (TEN DB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Breon Borders (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kenny Vaccaro (TEN S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
Titans by 21
Luck in points
5.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 26.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 90% · Jaguars 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Titans · Jaguars

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