luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Panthers, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Panthers 32–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:39 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 16 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 32
Carolina Panthers 27

December 13, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −4

Luck index +39 Broncos lucky · −39 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 DEN 34 CAR 10
  2. 2 DEN 40 CAR 23
  3. 3 DEN 30 CAR 17
  4. 4 DEN 37 CAR 29
  5. 5 DEN 31 CAR 27
  6. 6 DEN 17 CAR 15
  7. 7 DEN 26 CAR 29
  8. 8 DEN 33 CAR 39
  9. 9 DEN 9 CAR 20
  10. 10 DEN 7 CAR 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 61% of them, Panthers 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+15.0%
Broncos by 9–1616.6%
Broncos by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
Panthers by 1–819.1%
Panthers by 9–1612.5%
Panthers by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Broncos by 5, without the luck Broncos by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Slye, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 2 for 18 yards, Panthers 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:33 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Broncos, 5 yards 0% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 12:08 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Troy Pride Jr.), 5 yards +2% DEN +1.5 pts
Q2 3:31 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +10% DEN +2.0 pts
Q2 1:45 Taunting on the Panthers (Jermaine Carter Jr.), 2 yards +1% DEN +0.7 pts
Q3 14:26 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 3:35 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.1 pts
Q4 5:27 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q4 3:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 13 yards +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 10 yards +11% DEN +0.8 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:39 Return touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +16% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 6:34 The Broncos fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CAR DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:31 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1277 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:55 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:02 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% DEN CAR: Field goal
6 Q4 3:15 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% CAR DEN: Punt
7 Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 117 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +11% DEN DEN: End of game
8 Q4 1:56 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • D.J. Moore (CAR WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Sam Franklin (CAR S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.J. Bouye (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 75% · Panthers 25%

Final margin
Broncos by 5
Luck in points
1.1 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 61% · Panthers 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Broncos · Panthers

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