luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · December 10, 2020–December 14

Week 14 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chargers beat the Falcons 20–17 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Eagles 24–21 vs Saints 29% 31% Lucky
Broncos 32–27 @ Panthers 38% 61% Deserved
Washington 23–15 @ 49ers 41% 30% Lucky
Bears 36–7 vs Texans 47% 88% Deserved

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chargers W 20–17 vs Falcons 23% +77
2 Washington W 23–15 @ 49ers 30% +70
3 Eagles W 24–21 vs Saints 31% +69
4 Broncos W 32–27 @ Panthers 61% +39
5 Ravens W 47–42 @ Browns 64% +36
6 Chiefs W 33–27 @ Dolphins 66% +34
7 Colts W 44–27 @ Raiders 68% +32
8 Bills W 26–15 vs Steelers 76% +24
9 Rams W 24–3 vs Patriots 81% +19
10 Buccaneers W 26–14 vs Vikings 85% +15
11 Packers W 31–24 @ Lions 86% +14
12 Bears W 36–7 vs Texans 88% +12
13 Cowboys W 30–7 @ Bengals 90% +10
14 Titans W 31–10 @ Jaguars 90% +10
15 Cardinals W 26–7 @ Giants 96% +4
16 Seahawks W 40–3 vs Jets 99% +1
17 Jets L 3–40 @ Seahawks 1% −1
18 Giants L 7–26 vs Cardinals 4% −4
19 Jaguars L 10–31 vs Titans 10% −10
20 Bengals L 7–30 vs Cowboys 10% −10
21 Texans L 7–36 @ Bears 12% −12
22 Lions L 24–31 vs Packers 14% −14
23 Vikings L 14–26 @ Buccaneers 15% −15
24 Patriots L 3–24 @ Rams 19% −19
25 Steelers L 15–26 @ Bills 24% −24
26 Raiders L 27–44 vs Colts 32% −32
27 Dolphins L 27–33 vs Chiefs 34% −34
28 Browns L 42–47 vs Ravens 36% −36
29 Panthers L 27–32 vs Broncos 39% −39
30 Saints L 21–24 @ Eagles 69% −69
31 49ers L 15–23 vs Washington 70% −70
32 Falcons L 17–20 @ Chargers 77% −77