2020 season · final

San Francisco 49ers, 2020: game by game

The 49ers went 6–10 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck cost them 3.7: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Cardinals	L 20–24	74%	−74
Week 2	@ Jets	W 31–13	59%	+41
Week 3	@ Giants	W 36–9	97%	+3
Week 4	vs Eagles	L 20–25	87%	−87
Week 5	vs Dolphins	L 17–43	15%	−15
Week 6	vs Rams	W 24–16	55%	+45
Week 7	@ Patriots	W 33–6	83%	+17
Week 8	@ Seahawks	L 27–37	41%	−41
Week 9	vs Packers	L 17–34	29%	−29
Week 10	@ Saints	L 13–27	64%	−64
Week 12	@ Rams	W 23–20	43%	+57
Week 13	vs Bills	L 24–34	50%	−50
Week 14	vs Washington	L 15–23	70%	−70
Week 15	@ Cowboys	L 33–41	82%	−82
Week 16	@ Cardinals	W 20–12	95%	+5
Week 17	vs Seahawks	L 23–26	24%	−24

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −74 vs ARI

Wk 2 +41 @ NYJ

Wk 3 +3 @ NYG

Wk 4 −87 vs PHI

Wk 5 −15 vs MIA

Wk 6 +45 vs LA

Wk 7 +17 @ NE

Wk 8 −41 @ SEA

Wk 9 −29 vs GB

Wk 10 −64 @ NO

Wk 12 +57 @ LA

Wk 13 −50 vs BUF

Wk 14 −70 vs WAS

Wk 15 −82 @ DAL

Wk 16 +5 @ ARI

Wk 17 −24 vs SEA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.17	−8.2
Rest	+0.05	+2.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.38	−0.9
Judgment calls	−0.54	−17.1
Fumble bounces	−0.92	−22.0
Injuries	−1.98	−76.5