luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

49ers at Giants, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Giants 36–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 33 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:21 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 36
New York Giants 9

September 27, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3

Luck index +3 49ers about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 SF 39 NYG 7
  2. 2 SF 27 NYG 0
  3. 3 SF 31 NYG 9
  4. 4 SF 27 NYG 7
  5. 5 SF 23 NYG 7
  6. 6 SF 23 NYG 10
  7. 7 SF 24 NYG 13
  8. 8 SF 20 NYG 13
  9. 9 SF 27 NYG 21
  10. 10 SF 24 NYG 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 97% of them, Giants 3%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+61.9%
49ers by 9–1621.4%
49ers by 1–812.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Giants by 1–82.6%
Giants by 9–160.7%
Giants by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.8 points to the Giants: the final margin was 49ers by 27, without the luck 49ers by 45.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • R. Gould, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • R. Gould, 55 yds missed · 63% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Gould, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Gano, 47 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 6 for 45 yards, Giants 5 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:21 Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% NYG +3.9 pts
Q2 11:37 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.3 pts
Q2 8:19 Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Dontae Johnson), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 5:19 False Start on the 49ers (Jordan Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 4:31 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% SF +1.1 pts
Q2 0:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the 49ers (Trent Taylor), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.9 pts
Q3 6:48 Encroachment on the Giants (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.8 pts
Q3 3:14 Face Mask on the Giants (Lorenzo Carter), 8 yards +1% NYG 0.0 pts
Q3 2:30 Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Jason Verrett), 5 yards +1% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 13:00 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.9 pts
Q4 8:12 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q1 8:17 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
3 Q1 6:31 The Giants fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SF NYG: Field goal
4 Q1 4:52 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% SF SF: Field goal
5 Q1 1:21 Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q2 9:07 R. Gould missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 7 of 13 from 45+ before +9% NYG SF: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:31 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 76 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:03 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG NYG: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • David Mayo (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by n.mullens · 6.9 pts
  • Richard Sherman (SF CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.2 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (SF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (SF RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dee Ford (SF LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
49ers by 27
Luck in points
18.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 45.8
Replay with same day's form
49ers 97% · Giants 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · 49ers · Giants

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